Will RIM be this decade’s Nortel? Why they should be scared of how to stay relevant

Being back in Canada for the holidays, has me a little nostalgic – recalling my days at Waterloo, and since watching the meteoric rise of RIM in the past decade, along with Nortel’s precipitous fall from grace. Watching the new wave of mobile devices (formerly known as “smartphones”) and related consumer behavior patterns emerge, it got me thinking about what lies in store for RIM in this upcoming decade, and I’ve come to the realization that RIM may be on it’s way to become this new decade’s Canadian poster child as a high-tech also-ran.

Ideas aren’t inventions…and inventions aren’t businesses

This past weekend, I finally watched the latest Star Trek movie (quite entertaining). In reconnecting with the franchise, it reminded me how innovative Gene Roddenberry (and his writers) were in developing some remarkable ideas, like the Transporter.

But despite the “genius” of Roddenberry’s ideas, it’s a stark reminder that ideas aren’t inventions; meaning just because you’ve thought of something doesn’t make it your invention. Last time I checked, Gene doesn’t have a patent on the Transporter, the Replicator, the Warp Drive, or any other Star Trek created idea. Turning ideas into reality is hard, and that’s where the true genius is – let’s not forget the words of Thomas Edison:

“Genius is one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration.”

Here we’ll explore the requirements for an “invention”, and the stages for successful commercialization.

Global Entrepreneurship Week Wrap-up

As the Global E-Week site puts it: “25,000 Events, Millions of Participants, 1 Week”. Certainly an impressive initiative that we should all continue to do our part to support. Personally, I could only make it to three events in Cambridge MA which were absolutely incredible – here’s my recap of those.

Using Prospect Theory to Guide Product Management Decisions

In working through a number of recent product decisions, it quickly occurred to me that the fields of prospect theory and product management are linked together. In that customers (and internal employees) perceive removing vestigal, unused features as being far worse than never developing it at all. Here’s a breakdown of why that is, using the field of prospect theory as a guide.

Shameless Plug: Lime Tree Cove at Meeting of the Minds

Just wanted to wish the gang at Lime Tree Cove the best of luck this weekend – they’re heading out to Jimmy Buffett’s annual “Parrot Head” conference, called the “Meeting of the Minds” in Key West, FL.

They’ll be there to showcase The Barmaid, in all of it’s glory.

Best of luck guys, I’m sure it will be enjoyed by all.

Base Rate of High-Tech Start-up Success

I was going through some notes the other day from business school, and came across a presentation that referred to success rates for high-tech companies. The numbers come from the book “High Tech Start Up: The Complete Handbook For Creating Successful New High Tech Companies” by John Nesheim, which is relatively old, but still poignant. In it he offers some numbers that quantify the odds of success for high-tech start-ups – here are the numbers.

Seven Factors of Innovation Diffusion

In predicting how your new product idea may take off, you should consider the 1962 work by Everett M. Rogers called Diffusion of Innovations. Rogers also describes the S-shaped growth curve of innovations, and is also known for coining the term “early adopter” – a term familiar to those of you who have read Geoffrey Moore’s famous book, Crossing the Chasm.

Rogers outlines the following seven attributes that determine the rate at which an innovation diffuses in the marketplace. These can serve as a good rule of thumb for forecasting the speed at which a new product or technology will be adopted.

Evolution of a corporate web presence

Last week at Visible Measures, we unveiled a major redesign of our homepage, moving from a standard brochureware site, to showcasing our data first. While it took a lot of hard work by many teams, it’s not the first time we’ve been through this. Having piloted a number of these at VMC, it got me feeling a little nostalgic as I looked back on the numerous incarnations of our homepage, which I’ll share.

No, I will not sign-up for your web 2.0 application

With the Fall season upon us, we’re well into start-up conference season, with the big ones like DEMO and TechCrunch50 behind us, and the Web 2.0 Summit coming up this month. There is a lot of hype out there about the next big ideas, products, and companies…some of the organizers are even starting to believe their own hype as influencers of future success.

Image via Wikipedia

Well, I’ve got to admit, I’m downright fatigued from looking at the same kinds of ideas, over and over again, and the lazy approach to marketing and promotion from so many. For instance how many more companies do we need to see with no vowels in their names that have home pages that just display a pretty picture and the word “sign up”. I DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU DO OR WHY I NEED IT, SO I’M NOT GOING TO SIGN UP.

Too harsh? Maybe. Tough love? Yes. As a previous attendee at these conferences, I still think that they are great venues, but with a little careful planning you can cut through the clutter out there, by understanding the most tired, played out tactics and what you can do to stand out to build something of real value.

Perserverance vs. Punditry

I am a big fan of Paul Graham, and once again he’s given us a great essay, this time on determination. His basic idea is that determination is a factor of “willfulness balanced with discipline, aimed by ambition”. A very good post, that I encourage you all to read.

In keeping with the thread, I offer the following video, from ESPN’s “Outside the Lines”. If this isn’t the essence of Paul’s three traits, I don’t know what is…and if it doesn’t choke you up a bit, I’m not sure what will.